Young voters still driving early voting turnout in NYC mayor's race ahead of Primary Day heatwave

Early voters in New York City’s mayoral primary continue to head to the polls in record numbers as concern mounts about a sweltering forecast that could suppress turnout on Primary Day.

Board of Election data shows young voters continue to drive the surge in voting, but there are signs that older voters are also heading to the polls in larger numbers than usual.

The data shows 204,720 people cast ballots as of Thursday, compared to 105,911 this time four years ago. So far, voters aged 25-34 have made up just under a quarter of the total number of voters, maintaining a trend Gothamist reported on earlier in the week.

“One thing clearly emerging is a kind of age polarization,” said John Mollenkopf, director of the Center for Urban Research at the CUNY Graduate Center. He said young voters are heading to the polls in higher numbers than in prior elections — though it’s too soon to say if they will make up a bigger share of the overall primary electorate until polls close Tuesday.

“It’s a bit of a departure from the past.” Mollenkopf added.

Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, an assemblymember from Queens, has made mobilizing young voters key to his campaign. He released a video Thursday urging more young voters to get to the polls.

“Politicians don’t take you or your concerns seriously because they think you won’t vote,” Mamdani said in the video, holding an iced coffee. “Young people are already smashing expectations with surging turnout.”

But in a sign that could bode well for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been outpolling Mamdani with older voters, Gothamist’s analysis found voters aged 65-74 have made up the second-largest share of early votes, with just under 20% of the vote.

Older voters so far have made up the largest share of voters in Assembly District 69, which includes parts of the Upper West Side, Manhattan Valley and Morningside Heights. That district also has the highest turnout – 8,430 votes – in Manhattan.

Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said the campaign is very happy with the turnout numbers. “The only time far-left extreme candidates win is when there is low turnout,” he said.

The final three days of early voting tend to be when turnout is highest. The districts that saw the biggest percentage increases in turnout between the first four and six days of early voting are all majority Black districts, according to analysis of census figures by the Center for Urban Research at the CUNY Graduate Center.

Those districts include Brooklyn Assembly District 60, covering Starrett City and East New York, which saw an 81% increase in early voting turnout over the two days; Assembly District 59, stretching from Gerritsen Beach to part of Canarsie, which saw a 75% uptick; and Assembly District 58, covering East Flatbush and parts of Brownsville and Canarsie, which saw a 73% uptick in turnout.

Temperatures are forecast to get into the mid-90s on primary Tuesday. Cuomo has criticized the Board of Elections’ preparedness for the heat. Some poll sites do not have air conditioning.

“The steps outlined to meet the heat at polling locations are not sufficient. Water must be passed out and A/C systems must be installed to ensure that people who are voting can do so in a cool and comfortable environment,” Cuomo tweeted Thursday.

The Cuomo campaign is focused on turning out support among the city’s Black voters. On Friday, the campaign announced an endorsement from South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, an influential lawmaker who was once the highest-ranking Black member of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The Cuomo campaign is targeting voters with a robocall from Clyburn encouraging them to vote early given the expected heat wave on Primary Day.

“Andrew has an enviable record for standing up for people who are too often left out and left behind and he will stand up to Donald Trump,” Clyburn says in the call shared on YouTube. “But don’t wait for Election Day. It’s predicted to be 100 degrees on Tuesday. Vote this weekend before it really gets hot.”

If the early voting youth turnout rates continue, it would represent a shift from 2021. A voter analysis report from the New York City Campaign Finance Board found older voters outpaced younger voters by the end of early voting.

The highest youth voter turnout is in Brooklyn Assembly District 57, which includes the neighborhoods of Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Prospect Heights. Data shows 3,002 voters between the ages of 25-34 cast ballots in the first six days of early voting.

Another district with high turnout so far is Brooklyn’s Assembly District 52 — which includes Brooklyn Heights, Downtown Brooklyn and Cobble Hill — and continues to dominate citywide turnout with 9,340 votes.

Mamdani’s Assembly District 36 in Astoria leads the pack in Queens with 5,795 voters. In the Bronx, Assembly District 81, which includes Kingsbridge, Riverdale and Woodlawn Heights, has the highest turnout so far with just over 3,000 early votes cast.

In Staten Island, Assembly District 62 has the highest turnout with 2,263 voters. The district covers neighborhoods like Tottenville, Prince’s Bay and Charleston.