What to watch for in the first Democratic debate for NYC mayor

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Every Rose Garden strategy has its thorns.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo has maintained a commanding lead in New York City’s mayoral race while limiting his public appearances and questions from reporters. The tactic is a local version of a “Rose Garden strategy,” a term used to refer to a presidential candidate who avoids crisscrossing the country and instead stays at the White House, projecting an aura of power, prestige and inevitability.

But on Wednesday night, Cuomo will have to respond to criticism for the first time since he entered the mayoral race. The first of two debates among Democratic candidates for mayor starts at 7 p.m. on WNBC 4 and Telemundo, as well as their streaming platforms.

A total of nine candidates will be on stage for the two-hour debate. Mayor Eric Adams, who’s running as an independent in the general election, will not participate.

“It will be a circus,” said Doug Muzzio, a retired Baruch College political science professor. “In a debate of nine candidates, it’s going to be almost impossible for a candidate to distinguish themselves.”

But try they must. Here are three things to watch.

Will Cuomo keep his cool?

The debate is the first opportunity for Cuomo’s rivals to denounce him to his face. And it is almost certain to feature a cascade of attacks over Cuomo’s record as governor. Expect opponents to focus on his handling of the pandemic and the sexual misconduct accusations from about a dozen women that prompted his resignation in 2021.

So can the notoriously combative Cuomo stay composed?

“Do the candidates goad him to a point where he becomes angry and defensive?” said Basil Smikle, a former Democratic strategist who teaches at Columbia University. He said part of Cuomo’s strategy could be to “not get into the fray.”

Does Mamdani get a viral moment?

Modern campaigns thrive on generating memeable moments that ricochet across the internet. And Mamdani has proven himself to be a social media savant. Back in March, a video of him shouting at Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan while state police held him back racked up millions of views.

But can he create a viral moment in a two-hour debate where he’ll be competing against eight other combatants for attention?

Mamdani, who’s a democratic socialist, is polling second, and enters the debate with momentum. Last Friday, the Working Families Party endorsed him as its top choice, a move that could help unite progressives around his candidacy.

As Mamdani comes off that endorsement, the debate presents him with an opportunity to win over a broader set of liberal voters. But he could face some attacks of his own should Cuomo go on the offensive. Cuomo and Whitney Tilson, a former hedge fund manager and fellow moderate, could scrutinize Mamdani’s thin legislative track record during his four-plus years in the state Assembly, his support of the 2020 “defund the police” movement and his criticisms of Israel.

Do the left-leaning candidates keep playing nice with each other?

So far, the leading left-leaning Democrats in the race — Mamdani, Brad Lander, Adrienne Adams, Zellnor Myrie and Scott Stringer – have avoided criticizing one another. Instead, they’ve focused on eroding Cuomo’s lead.

The non-aggression pact is a byproduct of ranked-choice elections, where like-minded candidates have an incentive to strike alliances so that more voters rank them on their ballots.

But debates can lead to unpredictable exchanges between candidates. With time running out, will the anti-Cuomo candidates stay united? Or will desperation prompt one of them to split from the pack?

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