Proposed EPA policies threaten NY's climate law

New York’s goal to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions is poised to become far more difficult to reach because of changes at the Environmental Protection Agency.

The EPA is proposing to reverse its stance on climate change and roll back car emissions standards as part of President Donald Trump’s promise to undo environmental regulations to increase consumer choice and lower costs.

The latest federal moves could make it harder for New York to fulfill the 2019 climate law, which will phase out gas vehicles by 2035. It also requires greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 40% by 2030 and 85% by 2050 as well as a full energy transition to renewable power. So far, the state has cut roughly 10% of its emissions. Its energy transition is lagging, with New York City’s grid powered by more than 90% fossil fuels.

Much of New York’s climate goals are dependent on its ability to regulate vehicles and their emissions. Transportation makes up one-third of the state’s climate pollution, which exacerbates extreme weather and respiratory conditions

“The Trump administration is moving our country backward, eroding decades of progress on clean air and ignoring science, threatening public health, and putting New Yorkers at risk,” state Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Amanda Lefton said. “These policy shifts, which disregard established scientific consensus, will increase harmful air pollution and tailpipe emissions. The consequences could be significant and result in serious public health impacts, including heightened risks for asthma, cardiovascular disease and other respiratory ailments.”

The EPA was moving in the same direction as the Empire State by implementing progressively stringent car emissions standards that would eventually phase out cars powered by gasoline. The federal agency is now moving in the opposite direction.

Last month, the EPA announced its revoking its 2009 endangerment finding, which gives the agency the authority to regulate greenhouse gasses under the Clean Air Act because the pollutants are a threat to public health. The reversal would mean pollutants like carbon dioxide will no longer be recognized as a threat.

“Today is the greatest day of deregulation our nation has seen. We are driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down cost of living for American families,” said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, a former New York congressmember. “Alongside President Trump, we are living up to our promises to unleash American energy, lower costs for Americans, revitalize the American auto industry, and work hand-in-hand with our state partners to advance our shared mission.”

The EPA is accepting public comments for its new policies through Sept. 15, as required by law. Michael Gerrard, director of Columbia Law School's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, said that rules may not be finalized until 2027, and are also likely to face lawsuits.

If approved, New York will not be able to create mandates for zero-emissions cars, such as electric vehicles, and to phase out the sale of new gas cars by 2035.

Car manufacturers would be able to produce vehicles that can release greenhouse gasses without any limits. As part of the EPA’s overhaul in policy, it is scrapping its car emissions standards on greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide. The current standards set to go into effect for 2026 reduces carbon dioxide emissions to 186 grams of carbon dioxide per mile, about the weight of one cup of sugar pumped right into the atmosphere for every mile. The 2032 standard would reduce the carbon dioxide limit by about half, or the equivalent of 20 packets of sugar per mile.

The American Petroleum Institute, which had challenged the emissions standards in court, applauded the move.

"We support Administrator Zeldin's proposal to repeal the Biden administration's costly and unrealistic tailpipe rules, which would have effectively banned new gas-powered vehicles,” the Institute wrote in a statement on its site.

If the federal car emission standards are discarded, New York will not be able to make restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions coming out of vehicle tailpipes, which will make it very difficult for the state to meet its 2050 climate target of reducing emissions by 85%.

”New York state was counting on strong emissions controls for the greenhouse gases from cars and trucks as a big part of their climate plan,” Gerrard said. “If that's gone, that'll make it much harder for New York to meet our climate goals.”

The EPA is also re-evaluating its NOx rules, which limit nitrous oxide emissions for trucks because it results in “significant cost that will make products our trucks deliver like food and other household goods, more expensive.” NOx is a key factor in the production of ground-level ozone, which results in smog. Since June, the New York City metro region has had 18 days of air quality advisories for ozone, according to the DEC.

“ The long term impacts are more pollution in our air, so more asthma cases, more greenhouse gases,” said Kenneth Gillingham, a professor of environmental and energy economics at Yale University's School of the Environment. “If you're concerned about climate change, we will have more climate change, but also our automakers will suddenly face incentives to keep selling gasoline cars here, making the U.S. an island in the world.”

The EPA revoking the endangerment finding does not take away New York’s right to recognize that greenhouse gasses cause climate change, phasing out natural gas power plants and reducing building emissions, for now.

Gillingham said gutting the endangerment finding also translates to no federal incentives and funding for reducing greenhouse gas emissions such as the $7,500 federal EV credit.

New York has other options for controlling car emissions. Gillingham said the state can impose higher gasoline taxes and fees on registering gas-powered cars. State and local governments can implement EV mandates for their own fleets.

“ There's no question that if you want to deeply decarbonize an economy over time, or if you want to really try to address climate change by reducing emissions, you are going to have to reduce emissions from transportation,” Gillingham said.

New York’s climate law implementation is encountering several obstacles from the federal government since Trump took office. The state has lost funding allocated by the Inflation Reduction Act, including grants for EV charging stations, resiliency and solar panels. The federal government also paused permits for offshore wind projects, which would significantly power the renewable energy transition.