On NJ Election Day, Democrats' majority in the Legislature is vulnerable

The entire New Jersey State Legislature is up for election Tuesday — in many ways, a midterm test of Gov. Phil Murphy’s popularity.

Republicans gained seven seats in the legislature two years ago. If they improve on that performance, they could take control of one or both houses in the legislature.

The election will also be a test of how much local school board races can influence the outcome of the legislative races when they’re held on the same election day.

With the state legislature at the top of the ticket — rather than a race more likely to draw in voters, like a presidential election — turnout is expected to be low. But about 90% of local school boards are holding elections. A conservative movement of parents is active around New Jersey supporting candidates who do not favor policies, based on state guidance, that generally prohibit schools from outing transgender students to their parents. That could drive some parents to the polls.

“There are a number of attacks going on,” said Mike Gottesman, founder of the New Jersey Public Education Coalition, a group that opposes conservative parents who want more say over what’s happening in schools. “I think the major thing that people have to understand is that board of [education] elections, which up until about two or three years ago have always been nonpartisan, have now become the landscape for politics.”

Gottesman’s group organizes against the conservative “parents' rights” movement, which includes parents who want to ban books from school libraries or change sex education and other curricula they believe aren’t age-appropriate for their children. Most of the books that parents groups have looked to ban involve characters who are LGBTQ or people of color, but those groups argue they also include material that’s too explicit for young children.

In the legislative races, one of the state’s leading Democrats, Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Monmouth) is broadly considered in danger of losing his seat in a race against Republican Stephen Dnistrian. His district is purple, and is also a center for activity in the parents’ rights movement. Gopal last won reelection in 2021, but his two running mates lost their seats.

“The Republicans have found themselves since the summer in a very fruitful policy environment,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan University Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.

Last spring and summer, a larger than usual number of dead whales washed onto Jersey beaches, and false information tying those deaths to wind power took hold, even though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there’s no evidence of any connection to wind. Gopal’s district has been a hotbed of activism in opposition to wind power as well.

“All of this is particularly critical because we expect extremely low turnout during this election,” Dworkin said. “There's no statewide race to galvanize voter interest. It's just the state legislature at the top of the ticket.”

And last week, Murphy’s plans for wind power by off the Jersey coast were dealt a major setback when Danish wind giant Orsted abandoned two major offshore wind projects. Republicans celebrated that move as a victory for their own opposition to Murphy’s wind agenda.

Several races are also close in South Jersey. Sen. Ed Durr captured national headlines two years ago when he beat the most powerful member of the state Senate. Durr, a Republican, was an unknown truck driver with little campaign cash when he upended Senate President Steven Sweeney. Now he’s in a tough political fight to keep that seat, facing longtime Democratic State Assemblyman John Burzichelli, who lost his seat in the lower house two years ago.

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How to vote in New Jersey

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• Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, Tuesday. Mail-in ballots can also be placed in drop boxes or returned to county boards of election in person before 8 p.m. on Election Day.
• Polling locations are open until 8 p.m. Tuesday