NY's draft energy plan admits state will whiff on 2030 climate goals

New York, once considered a national leader in renewable energy efforts, is conceding it will fail to meet its most significant clean energy goals — and critics say state officials aren’t even trying.

New York's energy policy agency released its 15-year draft energy plan this week for public comment. While the plan acknowledges a need for more renewable energy and climate emissions reductions, it also emphasizes a need to continue relying on fossil fuels and making new investments into carbon-intensive infrastructure.

The plan puts the blame for some of its shortcomings on restrictions and lack of support from the Trump administration, but longtime clean energy advocates say the state is barely putting up a fight and was already behind before federal opposition.

”We're missing the goals by a mile; we're just so, so far away,” said Alex Beauchamp, Northeast director for Food & Water Watch. “The most damning part of the whole report is they don't have a plan to get back on track. They’re not even pretending to. They're just sort of shrugging their shoulders and saying, 'yeah, we're gonna miss them.'”

The draft plan outlines New York’s strategy for ensuring reliable and affordable energy through 2040. It serves as a guide for making future resource decisions, including expansion and upgrades to fossil fuel systems the state has long relied on, such as new natural gas pipelines and repowering fossil fuel plants. The draft plan cites 2022 energy data that shows the state gets three-quarters of its power from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas and petroleum.

“All major fuels used in New York today will continue to meaningfully contribute to the state’s energy mix through 2040, including electricity, natural gas and petroleum fuels,” the draft plan states. “Continued investment in all fuel systems is necessary to assure safe and reliable energy services, in particular to meet peak day needs and to increase resilience.”

The report cites a long list of external factors that are holding New York back, including supply chain disruptions, inflation and federal energy policy that could end tax credits provided under 2022's Inflation Reduction Act. The plan concludes that New York’s long-held goal of achieving a 40% reduction in emissions from 1990s levels by 2030 is likely out of reach. The state’s emissions reduction is currently at nearly 10% with only five years to go.

“Adaptability and resource diversity are key to ensuring New York’s energy abundance and affordability,” said Doreen M. Harris, who has been CEO and president of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority since the agency released its previous plan in 2020.

The plan also calls for policy action to reduce costs and red tape for energy efficiency options such as power-saving appliances and home weatherization. According to the state’s planning scenarios, by 2040, up to 25% of homes will have heat pumps and just over half the cars could be zero-emission vehicles.

Clean energy is still part of the state’s strategy to meet energy needs as it looks to increase solar power and battery storage. New York could increase its renewable electricity generation by 80% over the next 10 years. Projects already in progress such as offshore wind in the Atlantic Ocean, distributed solar and the Champlain Hudson Power Express will come online in the next decade.

But the state’s retreat on its own energy goals casts a cloud of uncertainty over any of its projections.

New York is lagging in building renewable energy sources, which is the reason why the state is reconsidering its stance on retiring its fossil fuel infrastructure and instead investing and expanding it. New York City’s grid is powered by 6.3% renewable sources — most of which is hydroelectric. The state climate law’s goal is 70% zero-emission energy by 2030.

Advocates and experts said offshore wind isn’t the only path to zero-emissions power. While new wind projects are on a temporary pause, New York should go full speed ahead on solar energy and geothermal energy while aggressively retiring its fossil fuel system and electrifying transportation and buildings, they say.

“As actions from the federal government threaten the progress we’ve fought for, the gap between our goals and current trajectory will only grow. That’s why we need state leadership now,” said Julie Tighe, president of the New York League of Conservation Voters. “We must accelerate renewable energy deployment.”

The Independent Power Producers of New York — a trade group of power generation companies that includes fossil fuels and renewable energy — praised the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority for presenting a realistic plan.

“The recent extreme heat has put serious stress on the electric grid, providing a timely wakeup call that New York needs a realistic approach to energy planning to ensure that our grid transition remains reliable and affordable,” Gavin Donohue, president of Independent Power Producers of New York, said in a prepared statement. “As a member of the Climate Action Council, I have been calling for discussions such as this for years and it is great to see a productive meeting on the state’s energy future occur.”

The public comment period runs through Oct. 6 with seven public hearings held virtually and throughout the state. Later this year, the state will publish a final plan.