‘Freeze the rent?’ NYC Rent Guidelines Board to hold politically charged vote Monday night.

When state Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani entered New York City's mayoral race last year, he leaned on a key campaign slogan: “Freeze the rent.”

If elected mayor, Mamdani has pledged to appoint members to the city’s Rent Guidelines Board who would never vote to increase rents for tenants in roughly 1 million regulated apartments, a key pillar in his message of making New York City more affordable for low- and middle-income residents. The simple slogan not only animated his successful campaign for the Democratic nomination, it also shined a brighter spotlight than ever before on the panel of mayoral appointees who determine the annual allowable rent increases.

The nine-member Rent Guidelines Board, which is made up of attorneys, economists and advocates, will meet Monday night in East Harlem for its annual vote — though if the past is precedent, the politics of the moment may not influence the board’s decision. A Gothamist analysis of past votes shows that whether votes take place in election years appears to have little effect on the outcome.

Mamdani, who was arrested protesting outside last year’s board vote, is expected to attend the Monday's event, along with hundreds of tenants who live in rent-stabilized apartments, their advocates and elected officials.

The board is weighing an increase of 1.75% to 4.75% on new one-year leases and 3.75% to 7.75% on new two-year leases. Its ultimate decision will take effect on leases signed on Oct. 1 or later.

Mayor Eric Adams, who appointed nearly all of the members, appears to fall somewhere in the middle. In April, he called the high end of the range “far too unreasonable of a burden for tenants.” But he also told landlords at a town hall earlier this month that he does not support a rent freeze.

“I’m not going to play politics with your assets,” he told building owners, according to video from the event.

Last year, board members voted to allow landlords to raise rents by 2.75% on one-year leases. They have raised the rent by a combined 9% during the first three years of Adams’ term.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who remains on the general election ballot on a third-party line, said calls for a rent freeze were mere political pandering. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa said the board shouldn’t bend to political pressure but that “any increase would have to be minimal while we work to increase the supply of affordable options.”

Timothy Collins, a former executive director of the board who wrote its official history, said he has never seen such focus on the vote, driven by Mamdani and other Democratic candidates calling for a rent freeze.

“I don’t remember a time when the Rent Guidelines Board affairs were so central to a mayoral race,” Collins told Gothamist earlier this month. “I don’t think there is a precedent.”

But landlords and their advocates warn that a mayor pledging to mandate rent freezes would be illegal.

New York Apartment Association CEO Kenny Burgos, whose trade group lobbies for the owners of tens of thousands of rent-stabilized apartments, said board members are obligated to consider data on both tenant and landlord expenses when making their decision.

“Promising to force the board to freeze rents before reviewing a shred of evidence isn’t leadership. It’s blatant abuse of process and the law,” said Burgos, a former high school classmate of Mamdani’s. “Our country has a long history of rejecting kings, and we should continue to do so.”

The New York Apartment Association, like many housing experts, says an important part of the city’s housing stock is facing a crisis. Older buildings where all or nearly all of the apartments are rent-stabilized are in dire shape and owners say they require more rent revenue to keep up with repairs, maintenance and their mortgages.

Tenant advocates counter that only a relatively small subset of buildings fit that description and that they should not be used to justify increases across the entire city. They also say many owners made a bad bet by taking out loans that required them to increase rents to repay — just before 2019 state laws limited their ability to do so.

And most tenants living in rent-stabilized apartments are already facing tough times of their own, tenant advocates say. According to the board's research, they earn a median income of $60,000, far less than the area median.

The emphasis on the board vote this year may also have to do with timing. A 2018 change to election law moved the mayoral primary from September to June. The people's vote now falls near the board’s yearly decision.

The question is if that could affect whether the board raises rent and by how much. Gothamist reviewed past votes in election years — albeit when the primary was still in September — and found little indication that board members hesitate on rent increases when the mayor who appointed them is up for re-election.

Under Mayor Ed Koch, for example, the board raised rent 5.5% in June 1989, the year he later lost the Democratic primary to David Dinkins. In 1993, Dinkins’ board raised the rent 3% — the same as the previous year. He later lost the general election to Republican Rudy Giuliani.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg slightly stands out. During his 12-year tenure, the board raised the rent by an annual average of roughly 3.1%, but only by 2.25% in 2005 and 2.5% in 2009, the years he faced re-election.

And under Bill de Blasio, the board voted to freeze the rent on three occasions, but not in 2017, his re-election year. That June, tenants received a 1.25% increase. He went on to serve another four years.