Forecast: We're Sacrificing Today's Dry Commute For Better Weekend Beach Weather

Jacob Riis, the People's Beach, the best beach.

The Weather has prepared a mixed bag of delights and frights for you, its children, as we head into the first weekend of what I will henceforth call summer, although technically it is still spring. On the one hand, we have a mercurial storm situation on deck today; on the other hand, conditions still look pretty favorable for flinging yourself into the sea on Sunday. I'm typing this with fingers crossed, so as not to jinx your plans.

As you know, it has been raining off and on all morning, and according to the National Weather Service, may continue to do so until around 1 a.m. We're looking at a chance of rain rising to a likelihood by 7 p.m., with a possibility of thunderstorms escalating to a probability through about 10 p.m. At the same time, temps should cool from the low 70s to the low 60s overnight, all of which sounds pretty okay to me, except some people are out here talking about urban tornadoes. NBC New York predicts that a windy downpour could drench the city and New Jersey (but especially New Jersey) this afternoon and evening, with powerful winds and even cyclones in some areas.

For what it's worth, the NWS projects a "limited" tornado risk for the foreseeable, although unfortunately I cannot say the same for hail: We currently face an "enhanced" hail hazard, which could make for a painful end-of-day commute. Then again, the NWS currently describes our severe thunderstorm odds as "marginal" overall, so maybe it'll all be fine. In any case, count on cloud cover for the rest of the day. It seems a small price to pay for what's ahead.

From where I'm sitting—up on a shoreside lifeguard stand, for your reference—Sunday (as stated) looks pretty perfect for beaching: We've got highs around 86, a low chance of precipitation, and wind speeds that land in the "gentle breeze" arena ("leaves and small twigs constantly moving, light flags extended" if on land; "large wavelets, crests begin to break, scattered whitecaps" if on sea) on the Beaufort Scale. Toss in reasonable humidity and medium cloud cover, which the NWS has gone ahead and done, and you've got yourself a beach deal. The water will likely be frigid, but I don't give a heck! Rain or shine, I will be going to the beach, just to prove a point.

What of the bridge between now and the beach? Friday should hover between about 60 and 74 degrees, with unfortunately gusty winds but a very low chance of storminess. Saturday may be slightly more cool, with temps bottoming out in the high 50s and rising into the low 70s, and a chance of thunderstorms at night. Admittedly, the NWS does project a small chance of that rain lingering into the next day, but I'm not going to think about that right now. I just think it's worth acknowledging so you can all join me in frenziedly knocking on wood, that's all.

From a weather perspective, it feels a little early to be talking about Memorial Day, i.e. Monday, because the meteorological powers that be could easily change their mind between now and then. But, from my vantage, it looks like you can expect the current temp trend to continue: Low 60s to mid-to-high 70s, maybe with some cloudiness, maybe with some rain. Honestly I don't think you should worry about it; I think the only thing you should worry about is which beach to hit. Here, let me help you with that.