Early voting in NYC mayor's race doubles from 2021. Young people are driving the trend.

Early voting turnout in the Democratic primary election for mayor has doubled compared to four years ago — and experts say there's a possibility the numbers signal a "transformative" shift in New York City's electorate.

A Gothamist analysis of data from the Board of Elections shows that 131,434 people cast ballots at their poll sites in the first four days of early voting this year. That’s double the number of voters at that point in the 2021 mayoral race. Younger voters and white voters in brownstone Brooklyn are leading the turnout so far, news that may bode well for Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, who is leading polls among young, liberal white voters.

In interviews, election experts said a key question was whether voters were simply heading to the polls earlier — if or new voters were casting ballots in significant numbers.

“It absolutely could be a ceiling for Mamdani,” said Laura Tamman, a political scientist at Pace University, explaining that the turnout could include voters who are supporters that decided to vote before Primary Day. “Whether or not these early votes are additive to his final total or are they just people who would’ve shown up on Election Day anyway — it’s just not clear.”

Tamman also noted that turnout, especially among young voters, typically drops in odd-year municipal elections, compared to even-year federal elections. A campaign that successfully drives those voters to the polls is accomplishing “a humongous task that’s rarely achieved,” she said.

“If they are successful, it could be transformative,” Tamman added.

A new Marist College poll shows Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, beating Mamdani 55-45 in a ranked tally. That same poll shows Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 34 points among voters under age 45.

Tamman emphasized the increase in early voting turnout.

“If it were up 10%, that would be one thing,” she said. “But for those numbers to be double suggests that there’s something real and important that’s happening.”

Voters aged 25-34 accounted for nearly a quarter of the early voting turnout so far, which is the single largest share of the early voting turnout by any age group so far.

The location of the highest early voting turnout so far is in Brooklyn's 52nd Assembly District, which covers neighborhoods including Brooklyn Heights, Downtown Brooklyn and Cobble Hill, where more than 6,000 people voted early. That Assembly district also had the highest overall voter turnout in 2021.

“They normally turn out heavily in almost any election,” said political consultant Jerry Skurnik, a longtime expert in voter turnout in New York City elections. He described the district as “quite liberal and largely white.”

Joan Millman, who is on the executive board of the Independent Neighborhood Democrats club in the 52nd Assembly District, said the organization encouraged its members to vote early. Millman, a former state assemblymember, said she voted for her club’s slate: City Comptroller Brad Lander first, followed by state Sen. Zellnor Myrie and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams.

She said even she was surprised to see the number of people voting on Sunday.

“ It was Father's Day and it was crappy weather, right? And still in all, there were hundreds of people who came out,” Millman said. “I was surprised at that turnout.”

Andrew Lum, 33, who works for a health care foundation, cast his ballot at Brooklyn Borough Hall on Saturday. He picked Lander as his top choice and Mamdani as his second. The candidates cross-endorsed each other after the final debate last week. Lum said Lander eked out his top spot because of his experience.

“He's probably a more effective operator,” Lum said. “He's more likely to get programs implemented in the city that I think will increase quality of life across the board.”