Public safety experts weigh threats to NYC amid Iran-Israel conflict

The NYPD stepped up security at religious sites and cultural institutions this week after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear sites.

Those extra security measures have continued, despite a delicate ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump Monday night. But law enforcement and academic experts who spoke to Gothamist said while New York could always be a target for terrorists, residents shouldn’t panic.

“You probably should not be losing sleep at night over this,” said Christopher O’Leary, the former FBI assistant special agent in charge of the New York Joint Terrorism Task Force.

Does Iran pose a threat to New York?

Historically, Iran proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah have carried out terror attacks across the globe, said O’Leary, now senior vice president of global operations with the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy. He said the country’s military has secretly sent soldiers abroad who could potentially execute an attack if the government is threatened.

But, he added, the threat should not cause great alarm for Americans.

“The FBI and the U.S. intelligence community have been aware of this, have been monitoring these individuals over the years, have disrupted several of them,” he said.

“For some of the cases I’ve seen in the past, their level of sophistication may not be something that should alarm your average American,” O’Leary said. He added Americans should not be overly worried about the threat. “This is not exactly the Iranian version of the TV show ‘The Americans.’”

An attack in the United States could also escalate the American response — something likely not in Iran’s best interest.

“If there were what we would consider terrorist-style attacks in the homeland, it would drastically change our posture, and I'm sure the administration’s approach to try to move towards a ceasefire would change,” he said.

Mary Beth Altier, a professor of transnational security at NYU, said Iran would likely strike back militarily in the Middle East. Iran attacked a U.S. air base in Qatar following the bombing of its nuclear sites.

“While a terrorist attack by an Iranian sleeper cell in New York City is always possible, I think it’s far more likely at this stage that Iran will strike — as they have in Qatar — in the Middle East with a direct military response that they perceive as proportionate to the U.S. military’s attack on their nuclear facilities,” Altier said in an email.

What is the NYPD doing?

NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch touted the NYPD’s counterterrorism capabilities in a statement on social media Sunday after the United States struck the nuclear facilities.

“We have over a dozen detectives embedded within international law enforcement agencies who serve as our eyes and ears for threat awareness overseas,” Tisch wrote.

“This morning, @NYCMayor and I got an extraordinary briefing from our detectives stationed in Israel, UAE, Qatar and Jordan on events unfolding in the Middle East. Over the past week, they have also gone above and beyond, using their contacts to help New Yorkers seeking to evacuate and get home,” she added.

O’Leary said the NYPD will be sharing intelligence with the FBI’s New York Joint Terrorism Task Force, which has a network devoted to potential threats from Iran.

“In addition, the NYPD Counterterrorism and Intelligence Bureau will put additional people out on the street to conduct surveillance, gather additional intelligence and put uniformed officers, either from the counterterrorism command or from other precincts, at sites that they would consider potentially vulnerable based on the dynamics going on between Iran and Israel,” he said.

What should New Yorkers do?

Law enforcement experts who spoke to Gothamist said New Yorkers should remain vigilant without jumping to unwarranted conclusions about their neighbors.

“The guidance to New Yorkers doesn't change from what was recommended during past periods of heightened threats: Be vigilant, especially in crowds, and report any behaviors that seem out of the norm, such as unattended bags or behaviors associated with surveillance,” Tricia Bacon, a professor and terrorism expert at American University, said in an email.

O’Leary cautioned New Yorkers not to racially profile their neighbors or make assumptions about people they see in the city.

“New York is a very diverse city. Don't assume somebody is Iranian and on the other side. Don't judge people for where they're from or what their politics may be,” he said. “Don't have a knee-jerk reaction going after people who are not like yourself.”